There has to be 0.2mm compression, thermalpads have to have 10% of compression to make proper contact. 2mm thermalpad should be good for clearances of 1.4 to 1.8mm. 1mm should be good for gaps ranging from 0.45mm to 0.9mm
Were this me, I would opt for the 2mm version.
There is most probably 0.2mm of compression available in the 2mm thermal pad, but if the 1.5mm thermal doesn't make contact, you have fail.